Projected Impacts of Global Warming on Chum Salmon Stocks in Hokkaido, Japan

Abstract Excerpt:
In recent years, there has been a rapidly growing worldwide concern regarding the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported that the sea surface temperature (SST) around Hokkaido has been increasing by 1°C per 100 years, and we are concerned about future impacts of increasing ocean temperature on the chum salmon stock in Hokkaido. Predicting the changes of ocean temperature conditions, and knowledge about how the change of ocean conditions could affect chum salmon stock, are essential if substantial measures are to be taken. To date, JMA published a long-term (100 year) forecast about trends in the variability of annual mean SST using a global climate model. However, there were issues with the forecast that were identified so that the prediction could be applied to salmon stock management in Hokkaido. The prediction is calculated as an annual mean SST, and the unit region for the prediction is larger than that used for chum salmon stock management.